January 7, 2007
While Nassau County Clerk
Maureen O'Connell is running only for Michael Balboni's
former state Senate seat in next month's special
election, the fates of New York's few remaining top
Republican leaders may rest on her campaign.
For Nassau GOP boss Joseph Mondello, newly named state
chairman, it is a major test of strength in his own
backyard only a month after taking over the state party
in the wake of Gov. Eliot Spitzer's landslide.
For Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno (R-Brunswick),
77, already under federal investigation for his outside
business activities, a loss could break his hold on his
diminishing 33-28 GOP Senate majority, endangering his
12-year reign.
A defeat would be just as devastating for Deputy
Majority Leader Dean Skelos (R-Rockville Centre), a
protege of both Bruno and Mondello, because it could
derail aspirations to succeed Bruno. Skelos, regional
chairman of the Senate's campaign committee, is in
charge of O'Connell's race.
"The stakes in this race are huge," said
Desmond Ryan, a lobbyist for the Association for a
Better Long Island, which represents commercial
builders. "On election night, Dean-o and the
Joe-Joes will either be singing, 'We Are the Champions'
or 'Say Goodbye to Hollywood.'"
What makes the Feb. 6 election so unsettling for
Republicans is that the resignation of Balboni, a
telegenic moderate who left to become the state's
homeland security chief, has taken a once-safe seat and
put it in play. The Mineola lawmaker, along with Skelos
and Charles Fuschillo, were considered among the crown
princes of the aged Senate majority. Elected in 1998
after a million-dollar, GOP-financed campaign, Balboni
has now become a political investment gone bust.
Republican insiders thought they had a blue-chip
incumbent who would last decades.
Making the contest even dicier is the Senate district,
where Republicans' enrollment edge in 2000 of 84,100 to
57,700 has since disappeared. Democrats in the district
now outnumber Republicans, 78,100 to 71,800.
Perhaps in tacit recognition of the numbers, no
Republican senators or officials appeared at O'Connell's
Friday announcement of her candidacy. And nowhere in
O'Connell's announcement did she even mention her party.
Tony Santino, a Mondello spokesman, said none of it was
intentional. "It was just Maureen's day," he
said.
Skelos also downplayed the numbers and said Democrats
are divided over a nominee. The party screened
candidates yesterday and will pick a candidate tomorrow.
"This is just another example of the Democratic
dysfunction, like when they could not elect a presiding
officer last year. It's embarrassing for the Democratic
Party," Skelos said.
The lawmaker also said O'Connell is a proven vote-getter
who won her county clerk post a year ago amid Democratic
County Executive Thomas Suozzi's re-election landslide.
She also spent eight years in the Assembly, representing
an area that includes about a third of the Senate
district.
More important, Skelos said Long Island needs a
Republican Senate to protect the suburbs' interests.
"If the legislature becomes totally dominated by
New York City Democrats, the suburban people won't stand
a chance," he said.
But Jay Jacobs, Nassau Democratic chairman, said GOP
scare tactics won't work, and Democrats will be united
once they choose a candidate. He also noted that
O'Connell twice lost as the GOP's North Hempstead
supervisor candidate.
"The race is going to be framed by asking voters to
send a reform candidate to Albany to help with Eliot
Spitzer's agenda," he said. "Are they going to
choose someone that Joe Bruno, who's already under a
cloud, helped pick to join him?"
But others said no one should underestimate the veteran
leaders who are fighting for their political lives.
"There's no doubt the pressure is on," said
Frank Tassone, one GOP consultant. "But if you need
a home run in the bottom of the ninth, I like the lineup
of Mondello, Skelos and Bruno to win the game."
Copyright 2007 Newsday
Inc.
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